Der Griechenland Deal – die nächste Mogelpackung

Der Berg in Brüssel kreiste und gebar die nächste Mogelpackung. Offenbar haben sich die Länder der Eurozone unter dem massiven Druck Frankreichs zugunsten Griechenlands und mit der Rückendeckung Italien auf einen Kompromiss geeinigt. Griechenland stimmt dabei der von Wolfgang Schäuble vorgeschlagenen Privatisierungsfond zu in den für 50 Mrd. Euro Vermögenswerte des griechischen Staates als Sicherheiten übertragen werden sollen. Im Gegenzug ist die Bundesregierung bereit einem dreijährigen dritten Hilfspaket für Griechenland zuzustimmen, das aus Mitteln des ESM finanziert wird. In Presseberichten ist aktuell von 82 bis 86 Mrd. Euro die Rede.
Warum ist das eine erneute Mogelpackung?
Nun dieser Summe von 50 Mrd. Euro aus Privatisierungserlösen aus griechischem Staatsvermögen war ja bereits im Rettungspaket 1 von Anfang an vorgesehen. Es war sogar als Kernelement für einen raschen Schuldenabbau Griechenlands angesehen worden. Davon wurden bisher 3 bis 4 Mrd. Erlöse erzielt. Die derzeitige Regierung hatte die Privatisierung sofort nachdem sie an die Regierungsmacht kam gestoppt.
Die eigentliche Crux liegt aber wohl eher darin, dass die griechische Regierung gar nicht über genügend werthaltige Vermögenswerte verfügt, um diese 50 Mrd. Euro auch ernsthaft bei der Privatisierung erzielen zu können.
Aus: The Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, Mai 2010

privatisation
Aus: The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Fourth Review – April 2014

“Privatisation plans have been rather vague so far, lacking a clear time planning. In early June 2010, the Greek government announced a wide ranging privatization program, spanning rail and road transport, airports and ports, utilities, gaming and public real estate holdings. Measures include outright sales to strategic investors, initial public offerings, new and extended public-private partnerships and the creation of private holding companies intended for eventual listing on the Athens Stock Exchange. It remains unclear whether all privatisations in the various sectors announced will effectively take place in the next months and how much privatisation will be in 2011.”
Nur was bringen Staatsunternehmen, die bisher mehr oder weniger nur Verluste erwirtschaften?
State owned companies
Sowie aus dem Bericht des IWF
IMF
Und das sollen dann werthaltige Assets im Wert von 50 Mrd. Euro sein?
Letztendlich wird doch nur der Hellenic Public Asset Development Fund (HPADF) mit einem neuen Namen versehen und jetzt unter der Regie der Geldgeber des ESM stehend weitergeführt.

Was am Ende mit diesen Vermögenswerten an Erlösen erzielt werden kann, ist völlig offen.

Aus:The privatization begins in Greece, In: Prian.RU – International Property, Meldung vom 6. Mai 2011

“The expected yield of selling national property will work out from €25 to €35 billion and it will be spent to repay debts to the EU. Greek Finance Ministry will present the bill at the Parliament to 15th of May. Of course The ancient Acropolis will not be sold, but others interesting objects of the state property will be put on the block. The planned privatization of the state property has to bring about €50 billion in general, and will allow reducing debt to GDP by 20%.

First of all, the government plans to sell the major facilities of infrastructure, telecommunications companies, gambling companies, energy companies and also lands. Greek officials introduced an approximate list of ready-to-sell properties in the middle of April.

At the moment the government continues to compile lists and properties preliminary value that would be suitable for selling to private persons and companies. For the first time in the history of Greece, all governmental properties will be listed in common register. Newly created State Investment Fund will spread the most attractive properties.
The German newspaper „Immobilien Zeitung“ reports that Greek and foreign banks have to structure and promote shares in foreign markets. In June, after consultation with specialists officials will arrange the first investment portfolio. It will appear on the real estate market in October. Other three investment portfolios will appear over six months.”

Daraus wurde seither nichts.

Aus: The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Fourth Review – April 2014

„Privatisation proceeds continue to come in, but again with some delays. Steps are being taken to reinforce the governance and effectiveness of the privatisation process, including of real estate assets. Corporate sales advance broadly in lines with plans, although some have been delayed in order to allow proper regulation of markets before privatisation (gas, ports). Concerning real estate, despite the large number of assets available, current weak demand and immaturity of assets make it difficult to extract much value from real estate in the short term, which has resulted in some adjustment in the projections. Recent tenders have nevertheless produced satisfactory results, and some are expected to set significant investment in motion over the coming years. Crucially, in order to speed up generation of proceeds, work has been undertaken to strengthen the institutions in charge of the privatisation process (HRADF) and of the preparation of real estate assets (ETAD), to be reflected in improved legislation and organisational changes. Monetisation through the involvement of private sector investors in the development of real estate assets is being explored, but will only be able to mobilise modest revenue flows in the short-run.”

Aus: The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Second Review – May 2013

“While progress has been made in preparing assets for privatisation, the overall speed of the privatisation process remains unsatisfactory . The end-December target for privatisation proceeds was missed by a wide margin and proceeds expected at end-2013 have been moderately revised downwards. The majority of state-owned enterprises destined for privatisation have now been transferred to the privatisation fund, but additional efforts are needed to reinforce the momentum. In particular, major efforts are needed in the liberalisation and privatisation in the energy sector, e.g. to provide the restructuring plan of the incumbent electricity company PPC. Further action is also needed in relation to real estate assets. Inter alia, additional steps are needed to expedite approvals from the Court of Auditors, Council of State, and Competition Commission to reduce the overall time for the sale of assets. The final sale of assets is of crucial importance for financing purposes, but also to bring additional investment, managerial expertise, efficiency and better governance to the enterprises involved. Additional measures are also needed to secure improved governance and transparency.”

Wieso sollte es jetzt deutlich besser laufen? Je später die Erlöse erzielt werden, desto weniger sind sie bekanntlich wert. „Time is money“, wusste schon Benjamin Franklin.

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